No, I don't downsize. Smaller lake doesn't mean smaller muskies and/or smaller forage, let the fish tell you what they want. I'm a firm believer that bigger is better, especially when targeting the largest fish in the lake.

No need to downsize at all! These fish love big baits and have no trouble eating them. You just have to get some confidence in throwing bigger baits and you will have success. What lake are you fishing exactly?

Round is an ok lake, but not a lot as far as numbers. There are plenty of other options that you may have better luck at per the amount of hours you would put in to get a decent fish.

I know a few guys in MMA that fish it, but i don't think it produces much, maybe someone else can clarify. If it is close for you it is worth putting in some time

"Ranger" said:
Let the fish determine the size of the lure you use regardless of the size of the water.

This is true, but can be deceiving a little bit as multiple baits of different sizes could move fish on any given day. I guess it matters what one is fishing for as well. For example, I could move fish on a regular size dawg or double 8 bucktail at Thornapple, but I would much rather throw a pounder of double 10/12 bucktail going for bigger fish.

All of a sudden I can visualize an equation to describe how to change baits on fresh water in an organized manner. Tree diagram would be the initial model. Then identify and measure the variables. Plug the data into a multi-variate linear regression application.

The model would suggest which variables would have the most influence the desired outcome, i.e., boating a fish. The problem is that there's not enough clean data to plug in to the tables such that the results would be valid and reliable.

Still, I wonder if there's enough solid data out there to play with it in statistical models.

Hmmm…crazy….

Jason, you show that your hunches, based on smarts and experience, are a shortcut to moving fish.